On the ethics of research cloning

Even though the Journal of Economic Perspectives recently went open access, a move the American Economic Association should be applauded for, I am still receiving physical copies. It is a nice journal to read while lounging in the garden or on a plane ride. The last issue has as usual a good set of interesting articles, including one I had reported on earlier when it was still a working paper. But while checking what I had said about it, I noticed something rather odd: the paper I discussed was ultimately published in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. I had to investigate.

The two papers are by Bruno Frey, David Savage and Benno Torgler. They both report on the sinking of the Titanic and discuss the characteristics of the passengers who survived versus those who perished. Both papers come to the same conclusions. The texts are different, though, and the published regressions are slightly different, with no explanation why, because there is no reference to the other paper. One has therefore to read in much detail to understand what the contribution of each paper is, if there is any.

All this is very fishy. It really looks like the authors are playing games here, trying to get multiple publications out of the same work. They do not mention the other work to fool editors and referees into thinking these are original contributions, as required for any submission to those journals. They tweak the results and rewrite the text so that they cannot be accused of blatant self-plagiarism. This is unethical behavior, but it is not unheard of in the profession.

But like a late-night infomercial, there is a bonus. Looking at the author's CVs, I notice that they have a third publication with the same topic and results, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Bruno Frey has also published two short pieces in German in magazines prior to the academic publications: 1, 2, both pdf.

Now, who are the authors? David Savage is a PhD student at Queensland University of Technology. He must have been following orders of the more senior authors, either without realizing their unethical behavior or watching in horror and not being able to do something about it. Let us give him the benefit of the doubt. His adviser is Benno Torgler, who has already an impressive track record for someone whose first refereed publication was in 2002. His RePEc profile lists 105 working papers and 52 journal articles. Looking at the published works, it seems to like to revisit previous papers by adding new twists to them. Nothing wrong with that, but it may explain why there is no major hit in the publications. There is simply too much slicing and no single slice is a major contribution worth a good publication. But early in his career, he published a series of articles on tax morale using the World Values Survey. Using the same data and the same methodology, he managed to publish several articles whose distinguishing feature is only that they look at a different set of countries: Asia, transition countries, Canada, Latin America, and possibly more. While I must confess that I have not read the papers in detail, there is simply too much material, and Benno Torgler may be innocent, I still find these patterns very disturbing.

It took me some time to figure out where Benno Torgler earned his doctorate. It is at the University of Basel, under the supervision of René Frey (Basel) and Bruno Frey (Zurich), who are brothers, after undergraduate studies at the University of Zurich. Which bring us to Bruno Frey. He is a researcher of international recognition, mostly for his work on welfare economics, happiness research, and critiques of fundamental assumptions in economic models. He credits himself with over 600 published articles and books, an astounding number in Economics. Of course, if this number comes about by slicing papers or republishing known results as described above, this number is less surprising. Looking at his list of major articles, one can surely suspect something is not quite right. I do not have the time (or the will) to go all of this, but there is indeed a lot of rehashing the same themes, which is OK when one uses new data sets or new approaches. But seeing those quantities, that seem unlikely.

Another aspect that I find disturbing in Bruno Frey's record is that his recent work has been railing against the tendency of academics (and especially their administrators and grant makers) to look for quantifiable evidence of their productivity, what he calls "evaluitis." He writes against the pressure to publish and the prominence of rankings of research output. I have reported about some of this writing myself (1, 2, 3). But again he seems to be repeating himself a lot, even in published articles, essentially criticizing a game that he seems to be excelling at. Either he is sarcastic or hypocritical, I cannot decide.

I realize the accusations I am making here can have severe consequences. But I am only accusing, not condemning. I leave the reader the opportunity to make her own opinion, as I have linked to plenty of evidence. I hope to be proven wrong, that these three individuals are indeed extremely innovative and productive. But from what I have seen so far, my prejudice is strongly negative in this regard.

Update (Sunday): I have been alerted that there is a fourth publication about the same Titanic study, in Rationality and Study.

Further update: A follow-up post.

Using public firms to regulate the environment

There are various approaches to regulate the pollutions of firms. One can regulate them, one can tax them, or one can create a market for pollution permits. Or one can ask the firms to self-regulate them. Or the government can take over one firm and let it set an example. Which option works best depends on market conditions and how emissions can be observed.

Davide Dragone, Luca Lambertini and Arsen Palestini look at a Cournot oligopoly for the last option. We know that when competition is less than perfect, less will be produced, which is good when the externality is negative. To adjust production to the right level, the public firm choose output and price to coerce the private firms to do the right thing. Basically, the latter are forced to internalize the externality. But this only works if there are not too many firms. The public firm reduces output such that the private one reduce as well, due to lower aggregate output and increased market power. One could thus imagine the government simply shutting down firms. But of course, this is valid only if there is no free entry in the industry, a big if.

An empirical nail in the coffin of Calvo pricing

I have never been shy about the fact that I am no fan of Calvo pricing as commonly practiced in New-Keynesian model. I have presented on this blog at several occasions theoretical evidence against it, as well as empirical evidence that price are either not rigid enough to matter, or that the way they change is not consistent with Calvo pricing.

Sascha Becker pushes the argument further. There is ample evidence that the relationship between inflation and price dispersion is U-shaped: At very low inflation, the is maximal dispersion. It decreases and increases with higher inflation. Monetary models can explain this, but very differently. Money search models require market power for this to happen. New-Keynesian models with Calvo pricing need sticky prices. Using monthly data from price level indices for 38 sectors in 12 countries over 13 years, Becker looks for sectors where there is more or less competition and more or less price stickiness. The U-shape is systematically found where there is more market power, but not where there is price stickiness...

Economists did see the bubble coming

Economists have been lambasted for not alerting the public that a bubble was in the making in US real state, except for a few oddballs. Of course everyone is wiser in hindsight, but what did economists actually say? It never hurts to look at the facts.

Martha Starr analyzes statements in 24 California newspapers from 2002 to 2007. From 1998 to 2005, the state's house prices increased by more than 10% each year. This prompted the newspaper to run 379 stories with 688 statements by economists on house prices. Academics were clearly warning that house prices were not sustainable. Economists employed in the real-industry, however, were resolutely optimistic. What emerges is a mixed message that gave no guidance to the public, which was even reassured by positive messages from the Federal Reserve.

It is entirely possible opinions could have diverged based on the same evidence. But it seems more likely the professionals were not acting in good faith. They had everything to lose from predicting an end of house price growth. The media should have learned not to trust such biased speakers, yet they continue to be interviewed. Now as to why Greenspan and then Bernanke were so optimistic is beyond me. There speeches are definitively strategic and while they may have realized there was a problem, they may have tried to prevent a bubble from bursting too brutally. Then all the credit to them for trying. But one cannot postpone indefinitely a bubble from bursting, and they knew that.

Trust and the business cycle

Public distrust in institutions (government, business justice and media) seems to be at an all time low in the United States, especially for banks. While conspiracy theorists have always been poplar in the US, they seem to have a field day now. It this just an impression, or it there some truth to it?

Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers run a very simple exercise: they regress opinion poll results against the unemployment rate and a time trend. Except for the media, it appears that such an economic indicators explains very well confidence in institutions, both in the US and in Europe. That is not too surprising, people are quick to blame someone for a recession.

Unfortunately, the paper does not report the results for the time trends. The figures seems to indicate that confidence has a downward trend, and it would have been interesting to see whether this trend is statistically and economically significant.

Entrepreneurship and finger length

Entrepreneurship is the engine of growth, thus is it is important to understand what makes entrepreneurs tick and how to identify potential entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurship courses in BS (business schools) are often dismissed as BS (...), but they have the merit to explain the ropes of setting up a business, thus lowering the hurdle. Still not everyone has what it takes.

Luigi Guiso and Aldo Rustichini make the rather surprising discovery that people with lower second to fourth finger length ratio exhibit stronger entrepreneurial skills. There is actually some theory behind this correlation. Indeed, this finger length ratio is associated with prenatal testosterone. Thus it appears that biology has something to do with entrepreneurship and ultimately growth. Does this mean we should now adopt a policy injecting fetuses with testosterone to bolster the nation's growth rate? No, because these entrepreneurs also seem to be over-confident, tend to build empires and thus sub-optimal firm size. But I wonder when bankers will start measuring their clients' hands.

The key to understand money: vacations

Monetary theorists have struggled for decades if not centuries to explain why we use and value money. Modern theory, which needs to be more explicit about its assumptions, has highlighted how silly some axioms of monetary theory are. For example, why would money make any sense in a utility function when future consumption is already taken into account? Or what about cash-in-advance in quarterly models of the business cycle. Money search model bring progress to the table as they model the problem of the absence of double coincidence of wants, although still with some rather crude assumptions. But at least it is going in the right direction.

Andrew Clausen and Carlo Strub come up with a new motivation for money. Suppose that there is a fix cost in production. Unless you want to produce at full capacity every period, you will then choose to close all operations from time to time and take a vacation. But you must live from something when you do not work and you have no savings technology. This is where money comes to the rescue. Without it, it would have been impossible to smooth consumption across periods, and thus money is valued and welfare enhancing. But beyond the possible elegance of the model, is anybody actually believing this story? I do not think in makes sense to discuss the intertemporal allocation of resources in a world without assets, especially if you want to apply it to anything modern.